I hate to realize though that I already have a plan that guarantees me the highest NAV till maturity, its called FD(fixed deposit). In addition, this product does not carry any market risk plus it does not charge 5% allocation charge, 1% p.a fund management charge and 0.35% p.a. guarantee charge. Now lets see what an FD gives over 8 years:
http://icicibank.com/interest-rates.html
7.75% with the tax savings option
In WP(Wealth Plus), I have excluded the charges for risk covers (death/accident)as FD does not give you risk covers. Thus the two products are now on equal footing to fight for the best returns. Now to beat FD, WP must generate:
(7.75% p.a. +1% p.a + 0.35% p.a.)/(1-5%) = 9.58%
Now, it is pretty much possible that LIC invests all the money in FD and just pockets all the charges. The plan does not promise any minimum equity investment.
http://www.licindia.in/wealth_plus_benefits.html

However, I would like to give the benefit of doubt to LIC. Assuming equities give 16% return and debt gives 7.75%, to give 9.58% return, LIC must invest atleast 22% of the funds in equities.
I have another important piece of puzzle that can help me find the planned amount of equity investments i.e. 0.35% p.a. guarantee charges or in finance terms OPTION PREMIUM for lookback put option. With this thrown in assuming a 40% volatility in Indian equity markets, LIC can only afford to put 2.32% of its funds in equity (to cover the option premium in 0.35% p.a.). If this is the reality, to beat FD, Nifty(5.7K currently) must touch 436K atleast once in next seven years, which is improbable if not impossible.
I am eagerly waiting for the WP NAVs to be made public, so that we know what the LIC fund managers are upto.
nice one buddy, good analysis
ReplyDeleteNice analysis !!
ReplyDeleteI always prefer MFs :)